Was the forecast right for Washington on Fri Oct 16?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 51° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 80° against the DCA observations, with 0.18 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ECMWF ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 53° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 53–79° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 66° | 51° | 82° | — | 72° | — | — | 51–82° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 80° | 56° | 72° | — | 72° | — | — | 56–80° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 68° | 57° | 83° | — | 65° | — | — | 57–83° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 69° | 70° | 72° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–72° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 59° | 64° | 74° | — | 67° | — | — | 59–74° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 67° | 73° | 61° | 68° | 80° | — | — | 61–80° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 71° | 84° | 74° | 74° | 83° | — | — | 71–84° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 63° | 82° | 61° | 84° | 76° | — | — | 61–84° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 81° | 72° | 66° | 81° | 78° | 82° | 64° | 64–82° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 75° | 76° | 78° | 81° | 82° | 70° | 70° | 70–82° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 81° | 84° | 81° | 86° | 77° | 83° | 77–86° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 81° | 80° | 84° | 83° | 86° | 84° | 84° | 80–86° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 81° | 84° | 82° | 84° | 86° | 82° | 82° | 81–86° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 81° | 85° | 85° | 82° | 85° | 84° | 82° | 81–85° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.