Was the forecast right for Washington on Sun Sep 6?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 72° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 85° against the DCA observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 81° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 81–82° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 78° | 76° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 76–81° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 82° | 84° | 83° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–84° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 92° | 75° | 95° | — | 86° | — | — | 75–95° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 92° | 93° | 80° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–93° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 84° | 96° | 83° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–96° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 83° | 81° | 87° | — | 89° | — | — | 81–89° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 83° | 80° | 88° | 88° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 82° | 80° | 80° | 79° | 83° | — | — | 79–83° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 80° | 76° | 79° | 80° | 78° | 77° | — | 76–80° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 82° | 81° | 87° | 85° | 83° | 82° | 84° | 81–87° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 81° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 87° | 81° | 82° | 79–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 82° | 80° | 80° | 80° | 83° | 83° | 83° | 80–83° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 82° | 82° | 80° | 80° | 82° | 82° | 83° | 80–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 83° | 81° | 82° | 85° | 85° | 82° | 82° | 81–85° |
| 0d · 2026-09-06 | 83° | 82° | 84° | 84° | 85° | 82° | 82° | 82–85° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.