Was the forecast right for Washington on Thu Sep 10?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Washington's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 80° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 91° against the DCA observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. UKMO ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 74° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 74–79° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 81° | 84° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 90° | 89° | 83° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 82° | 89° | 84° | — | 90° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 79° | 83° | — | 84° | — | — | 79–86° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 90° | 75° | 85° | — | 81° | — | — | 75–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 95° | 76° | 104° | — | 101° | — | — | 76–104° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 96° | 95° | 94° | 94° | 90° | — | — | 90–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 88° | 94° | 96° | 92° | 92° | — | — | 88–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 94° | 89° | 95° | 92° | 87° | 93° | — | 87–95° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 90° | 91° | 91° | 91° | 94° | 90° | 90° | 90–94° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 93° | 90° | 96° | 89° | 95° | 87° | 89° | 87–96° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 88° | 85° | 95° | 89° | 89° | 91° | 90° | 85–95° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 88° | 88° | 94° | 91° | 91° | 92° | 85° | 85–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 87° | 88° | 93° | 91° | 94° | 90° | 88° | 87–94° |
| 0d · 2026-09-10 | 88° | 92° | 90° | 89° | 93° | 86° | 86° | 86–93° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.