Was the forecast right for Washington on Thu Sep 24?
Washington, District of Columbia · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DCA observations
14 days out, 4 models put Washington's Thu Sep 24 high anywhere from 62° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 67° against the DCA observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Washington scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-09 | — | 72° | — | — | 68° | — | — | 68–72° |
| 14d · 2026-09-10 | 74° | 62° | 64° | — | 77° | — | — | 62–77° |
| 13d · 2026-09-11 | 76° | 72° | 75° | — | 75° | — | — | 72–76° |
| 12d · 2026-09-12 | 74° | 76° | 69° | — | 77° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 11d · 2026-09-13 | 82° | 79° | 69° | — | 81° | — | — | 69–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-14 | 69° | 76° | 69° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–76° |
| 9d · 2026-09-15 | 76° | 80° | 77° | 80° | 85° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-16 | 67° | 69° | 69° | 76° | 82° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-17 | 60° | 60° | 75° | 61° | 67° | — | — | 60–75° |
| 6d · 2026-09-18 | 63° | 64° | 69° | 58° | 62° | 69° | 66° | 58–69° |
| 5d · 2026-09-19 | 68° | 65° | 64° | 60° | 60° | 63° | 68° | 60–68° |
| 4d · 2026-09-20 | 66° | 66° | 64° | 60° | 64° | 61° | 67° | 60–67° |
| 3d · 2026-09-21 | 66° | 64° | 64° | 66° | 66° | 68° | 66° | 64–68° |
| 2d · 2026-09-22 | 66° | 64° | 65° | 66° | 66° | 65° | 66° | 64–66° |
| 1d · 2026-09-23 | 65° | 65° | 63° | 69° | 66° | 66° | 67° | 63–69° |
| actual | 67° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Washington — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DCA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.