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Which weather model is most accurate in Los Angeles?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Wed Oct 14

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Los Angeles at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the FHMC1 observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-14), for daily high temperature.

One day out, ECMWF IFS has been most accurate (typical miss 0.78°C); at three days, too close to call; at seven days, NOAA GFS (2.86°C).

The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA AIGFS (AI), which has run cool by about 4.17°C at 3-day lead over this window.

Los Angeles's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
ECMWF IFS 0.8° (+0.0°) 1.3° (+0.3°) 3.4° (-2.4°) 27
NOAA GFS 1.3° (-0.3°) 1.5° (-0.5°) 2.9° (-0.5°) 27
GEM (Canada) 1.4° (+1.2°) 1.6° (+0.8°) 3.4° (+1.3°) 27
UKMO (UK) 1.5° (-1.5°) 1.8° (-1.7°) — 27
DWD ICON 1.7° (+1.0°) 2.0° (+1.2°) — 27
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 2.9° (-2.9°) 2.9° (-2.9°) 3.5° (-3.0°) 27
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 3.9° (-3.8°) 4.2° (-4.2°) 4.5° (-4.0°) 27

Method, honestly

The Spread's Los Angeles point is the Dodger Stadium station (FHMC1), 2.2 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Dodger Stadium (FHMC1) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 19–29; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 27–33; it hit 24. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 24–36; it hit 19. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 25–35; it hit 23. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 25–38; it hit 27. ECMWF led (off 0.6°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 29–38; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 27–39; it hit 35. ICON led (off 0.8°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 29–35; it hit 36. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 27–33; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 26–35; it hit 40. GEM led (off 0.5°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 24–37; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 27–38; it hit 40. ECMWF led (off 0.5°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 26–38; it hit 39. GEM led (off 0.7°C); AIGFS ran 7°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 23–31; it hit 29. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 5°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 30. ICON led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 27–35; it hit 31. AIGFS led (off 0.6°C); ICON ran 6°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 28 13 days out the models said 28–34; it hit 28. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 13 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 32. GEM led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 23–29; it hit 29. GFS led (off 1.3°C); ICON ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 23–28; it hit 29. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); ICON ran 6°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 26–34; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 22–28; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 26–32; it hit 26. ICON led (off 0.0°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 26–34; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 22–33; it hit 27. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 24–34; it hit 27. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 27–33; it hit 27. GEM led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 23–32; it hit 29. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 28–34; it hit 29. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.6°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 22–30; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 24–33; it hit 37. ICON led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 23–33; it hit 41. GEM led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 5°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 25–32; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 24–32; it hit 34. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 25–34; it hit 24. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 7°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 28–34; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 13 days out the models said 29–34; it hit 29. ICON led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 12 days out the models said 29–34; it hit 28. ICON led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 2 11 days out the models said 29–35; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 10 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 29. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 9 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 30. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 30 8 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 29 7 days out the models said 30–39; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.6°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 6 days out the models said 29–39; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.7°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 5 days out the models said 28–40; it hit 34. GFS led (off 1.6°C); ICON ran 6°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 4 days out the models said 30–40; it hit 37. UKMO led (off 0.7°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 20 14 days out the models said 25–34; it hit 35. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 8°C cool.
  • Wed Aug 19 14 days out the models said 22–32; it hit 36. GFS led (off 1.3°C); AIGFS ran 8°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 24–34; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 7°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 34. GFS led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 24–33; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 1.6°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 30. GEM led (off 0.8°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 27–30; it hit 29. UKMO led (off 1.1°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 30. GEM led (off 1.6°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 26–36; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 2.2°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 25–34; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 2.4°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 23–32; it hit 34. UKMO led (off 1.7°C); AIGFS ran 7°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 26–30; it hit 35. GEM led (off 1.3°C); AIGFS ran 8°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 26–32; it hit 35. ECMWF led (off 1.3°C); AIGFS ran 7°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 27–34; it hit 35. ECMWF led (off 1.8°C); AIGFS ran 8°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.5°C); AIGFS ran 7°C cool.
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 29–33; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 6°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 28–34; it hit 31. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 28–34; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 7°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 34. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 7°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 8°C cool.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 29–34; it hit 35. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 8°C cool.
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 29–33; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 7°C cool.

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