Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sat Oct 31?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Sat Oct 31 high anywhere from 16° to 25°; by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 21°. The day verified at 22° against the FHMC1 observations, with 12.7 mm of precipitation.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Forecast highs for Sat Oct 31 as each model's run approached it, recorded from the last archived model run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are omitted because they average the other models.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-16 | — | 21° | — | — | 24° | — | — | 21–24° |
| 14d · 2026-10-17 | 21° | 16° | 22° | — | 25° | — | — | 16–25° |
| 13d · 2026-10-18 | 17° | 18° | 19° | — | 25° | — | — | 17–25° |
| 12d · 2026-10-19 | 19° | 20° | 23° | — | 20° | — | — | 19–23° |
| 11d · 2026-10-20 | 18° | 21° | 21° | — | 24° | — | — | 18–24° |
| 10d · 2026-10-21 | 19° | 19° | 22° | — | 22° | — | — | 19–22° |
| 9d · 2026-10-22 | 19° | 18° | 21° | 21° | 20° | — | — | 18–21° |
| 8d · 2026-10-23 | 20° | 19° | 19° | 21° | 22° | — | — | 19–22° |
| 7d · 2026-10-24 | 18° | 21° | 19° | 21° | 18° | — | — | 18–21° |
| 6d · 2026-10-25 | 17° | 18° | 21° | 20° | 21° | 19° | 20° | 17–21° |
| 5d · 2026-10-26 | 18° | 18° | 18° | 21° | 20° | 20° | 19° | 18–21° |
| 4d · 2026-10-27 | 18° | 19° | 21° | 22° | 22° | 21° | 20° | 18–22° |
| 3d · 2026-10-28 | 18° | 20° | 22° | 22° | 20° | 20° | 22° | 18–22° |
| 2d · 2026-10-29 | 19° | 20° | 19° | 23° | 21° | 20° | 21° | 19–23° |
| 1d · 2026-10-30 | 19° | 20° | 20° | 22° | 22° | 21° | 22° | 19–22° |
| actual | 22° |
What one day can show
A score for one day isn't very meaningful; a useful ranking needs many days of data. See which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles, or in every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time they were recorded by The Spread; nothing is reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.