The Spread

Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Sat Aug 1?

Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

5 days out, 7 models put Los Angeles's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 31° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 9° cold.

5 days out the models said 31–36; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 9°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
5d · 2026-07-27 32° 31° 36° 35° 34° 31° 34° 31–36°
4d · 2026-07-28 32° 27° 37° 36° 36° 31° 34° 27–37°
3d · 2026-07-29 32° 27° 36° 35° 36° 32° 35° 27–36°
2d · 2026-07-30 32° 27° 37° 34° 36° 31° 34° 27–37°
1d · 2026-07-31 32° 27° 37° 34° 35° 32° 34° 27–37°
0d · 2026-08-01 31° 26° 36° 34° 35° 31° 33° 26–36°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.