Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Wed Sep 9?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 23° to 33°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 41° against the FHMC1 observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 26° | — | — | 29° | — | — | 26–29° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 26° | 23° | 31° | — | 33° | — | — | 23–33° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 30° | 24° | 33° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–33° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 31° | 28° | 28° | — | 30° | — | — | 28–31° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 28° | 29° | 28° | — | 32° | — | — | 28–32° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 29° | 28° | 30° | — | 32° | — | — | 28–32° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 26° | 25° | 25° | 31° | 28° | — | — | 25–31° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 29° | 26° | 31° | 27° | 33° | — | — | 26–33° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 31° | 28° | 33° | 31° | 28° | — | — | 28–33° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 34° | 34° | 35° | 31° | 32° | 36° | 24° | 24–36° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 36° | 35° | 35° | 38° | 31° | 38° | 30° | 30–38° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 36° | 34° | 37° | 41° | 39° | 42° | 35° | 34–42° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 35° | 32° | 34° | 41° | 36° | 40° | 37° | 32–41° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 36° | 35° | 34° | 41° | 38° | 40° | 37° | 34–41° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 36° | 36° | 35° | 40° | 38° | 40° | 38° | 35–40° |
| actual | 41° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.