Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Wed Sep 9?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
13 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 85° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 100°. The day verified at 105° against the FHMC1 observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 2.3°. AIFS ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 73° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 73–75° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 83° | 72° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 72–92° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 86° | 85° | — | 87° | — | — | 85–87° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 96° | 86° | 85° | — | 96° | — | — | 85–96° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 85° | 80° | 85° | — | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 84° | 86° | — | 84° | — | — | 84–86° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 86° | 84° | 97° | — | 90° | — | — | 84–97° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 75° | 77° | 78° | 80° | 88° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 78° | 95° | 84° | 81° | — | — | 78–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 94° | 88° | 95° | 86° | 90° | 107° | — | 86–107° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 95° | 89° | 94° | 94° | 92° | 99° | 86° | 86–99° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 97° | 95° | 101° | 101° | 98° | 105° | 88° | 88–105° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 97° | 92° | 93° | 106° | 98° | 106° | 97° | 92–106° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 95° | 93° | 91° | 105° | 96° | 102° | 97° | 91–105° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 98° | 95° | 94° | 105° | 98° | 104° | 100° | 94–105° |
| 0d · 2026-09-09 | 97° | 99° | 98° | 101° | 100° | 103° | 102° | 97–103° |
| actual | 105° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.