Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Wed Sep 9?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 74° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 100°. The day verified at 105° against the FHMC1 observations — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.6°. ECMWF ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 79° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 79° | 74° | 88° | — | 91° | — | — | 74–91° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 75° | 91° | — | 74° | — | — | 74–91° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 88° | 82° | 82° | — | 87° | — | — | 82–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 82° | 84° | 83° | — | 89° | — | — | 82–89° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 83° | 86° | — | 89° | — | — | 83–89° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 78° | 77° | 77° | 88° | 83° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 84° | 79° | 87° | 80° | 91° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 88° | 82° | 91° | 88° | 82° | — | — | 82–91° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 93° | 94° | 95° | 87° | 90° | 96° | 75° | 75–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 96° | 95° | 96° | 101° | 87° | 101° | 86° | 86–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 96° | 94° | 99° | 106° | 102° | 108° | 95° | 94–108° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 94° | 90° | 93° | 106° | 98° | 105° | 98° | 90–106° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 96° | 95° | 94° | 105° | 100° | 103° | 99° | 94–105° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 96° | 97° | 95° | 104° | 100° | 104° | 101° | 95–104° |
| actual | 105° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.