Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Aug 3?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
8 days out, 5 models put Los Angeles's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 28° to 34°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 33° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-26 | 29° | 28° | 30° | 34° | 34° | — | — | 28–34° |
| 7d · 2026-07-27 | 29° | 26° | 30° | 34° | 33° | — | — | 26–34° |
| 6d · 2026-07-28 | 29° | 25° | 31° | 34° | 34° | 29° | 31° | 25–34° |
| 5d · 2026-07-29 | 29° | 25° | 34° | 35° | 35° | 30° | 34° | 25–35° |
| 4d · 2026-07-30 | 30° | 25° | 33° | 34° | 34° | 30° | 33° | 25–34° |
| 3d · 2026-07-31 | 29° | 26° | 34° | 32° | 35° | 30° | 32° | 26–35° |
| 2d · 2026-08-01 | 29° | 26° | 33° | 32° | 34° | 30° | 32° | 26–34° |
| 1d · 2026-08-02 | 29° | 26° | 33° | 33° | 32° | 28° | 32° | 26–33° |
| actual | 33° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.