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Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Mon Oct 5?

Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations

14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 26° to 35°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 40° against the FHMC1 observations — clear.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.

14 days out the models said 26–35; it hit 40. GEM led (off 0.5°C); AIGFS ran 5°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-20 — 25° — — 33° — — 25–33°
14d · 2026-09-21 27° 26° 35° — 33° — — 26–35°
13d · 2026-09-22 29° 33° 35° — 40° — — 29–40°
12d · 2026-09-23 30° 28° 27° — 33° — — 27–33°
11d · 2026-09-24 29° 34° 32° — 39° — — 29–39°
10d · 2026-09-25 31° 32° 30° — 33° — — 30–33°
9d · 2026-09-26 34° 30° 31° 31° 36° — — 30–36°
8d · 2026-09-27 36° 39° 29° 35° 37° — — 29–39°
7d · 2026-09-28 35° 33° 38° 39° 38° — — 33–39°
6d · 2026-09-29 34° 31° 34° 38° 38° 39° 35° 31–39°
5d · 2026-09-30 34° 33° 39° 37° 36° 38° 36° 33–39°
4d · 2026-10-01 35° 34° 39° 38° 37° 38° 37° 34–39°
3d · 2026-10-02 36° 36° 39° 40° 38° 38° 38° 36–40°
2d · 2026-10-03 36° 36° 39° 40° 38° 38° 38° 36–40°
1d · 2026-10-04 36° 35° 39° 40° 37° 38° 38° 35–40°
actual 40°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.