Which weather model is most accurate in Buffalo?

Outlook Model accuracy

Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Buffalo at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the BUF observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-08-04 to 2026-09-02), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (1.81°C).

The largest standing bias belongs to GEM (Canada), which has run cool by about 1.85°C at 3-day lead over this window.

The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 0.62°C typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model	1-day	3-day	7-day	Days
DWD ICON	1.0° (-0.7°)	1.3° (-0.3°)	—	30
UKMO (UK)	1.0° (-0.3°)	1.4° (-0.3°)	—	30
NOAA GFS	1.1° (+0.6°)	1.4° (+0.6°)	2.6° (+0.8°)	30
ECMWF AIFS (AI)	1.3° (-1.2°)	1.7° (-0.9°)	1.8° (-1.3°)	30
NOAA AIGFS (AI)	1.4° (-1.1°)	1.8° (-1.1°)	2.8° (-1.7°)	30
GEM (Canada)	1.4° (+1.2°)	2.3° (-1.9°)	2.5° (-1.7°)	30
ECMWF IFS	1.5° (-1.2°)	1.6° (-1.0°)	2.3° (-1.2°)	30
NBM (US blend)	0.9° (-0.3°)	1.4° (-0.4°)	1.9° (-0.5°)	30
Blended (bias-corrected)	0.6° (-0.0°)	1.0° (+0.0°)	1.6° (+0.0°)	30

Method, honestly

The Spread's Buffalo point is the Buffalo Intl station (BUF), 13 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is BUF observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

Tue Sep 1 10 days out the models said 21–25; it hit 29. GEM led (off 0.7°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
Mon Aug 31 9 days out the models said 25–27; it hit 23. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 1°C hot.
Sun Aug 30 8 days out the models said 21–25; it hit 21. ICON led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 5°C hot.
Sat Aug 29 7 days out the models said 19–24; it hit 26. ICON led (off 0.7°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
Fri Aug 28 6 days out the models said 20–26; it hit 23. GEM led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
Thu Aug 27 5 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 26. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
Wed Aug 26 4 days out the models said 23–26; it hit 27. UKMO led (off 0.6°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
Tue Aug 25 3 days out the models said 20–23; it hit 24. GFS led (off 0.5°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
Wed Aug 19 13 days out the models said 24–26; it hit 26. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C cold.
Tue Aug 18 13 days out the models said 22–26; it hit 25. ICON led (off 0.1°C).
Mon Aug 17 13 days out the models said 21–23; it hit 27. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
Sun Aug 16 13 days out the models said 20–27; it hit 29. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 2°C cold.
Sat Aug 15 13 days out the models said 24–32; it hit 28. GFS led (off 0.9°C); GEM ran 2°C hot.
Fri Aug 14 13 days out the models said 24–28; it hit 28. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 2°C hot.
Thu Aug 13 13 days out the models said 21–27; it hit 27. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
Wed Aug 12 13 days out the models said 20–27; it hit 25. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
Tue Aug 11 13 days out the models said 23–27; it hit 27. GFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C hot.
Mon Aug 10 13 days out the models said 23–28; it hit 25. GEM led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C hot.
Sun Aug 9 13 days out the models said 22–29; it hit 26. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 3°C hot.
Sat Aug 8 12 days out the models said 21–30; it hit 26. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C hot.
Fri Aug 7 11 days out the models said 24–30; it hit 26. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
Thu Aug 6 10 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 28. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
Wed Aug 5 9 days out the models said 28–29; it hit 29. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C hot.
Tue Aug 4 8 days out the models said 25–28; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 2°C hot.
Mon Aug 3 7 days out the models said 23–28; it hit 25. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 3°C hot.
Sun Aug 2 6 days out the models said 21–27; it hit 25. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
Sat Aug 1 5 days out the models said 24–30; it hit 30. ICON led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
Fri Jul 31 4 days out the models said 25–29; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 2°C hot.
Thu Jul 30 3 days out the models said 23–27; it hit 26. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C hot.

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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.