Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sun Sep 6?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 22° to 26°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 23°. The day verified at 23° against the BUF observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GEM ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 17° | — | — | 25° | — | — | 17–25° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 26° | 22° | 22° | — | 22° | — | — | 22–26° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 25° | 27° | 25° | — | 25° | — | — | 25–27° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 25° | 29° | 25° | — | 33° | — | — | 25–33° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 26° | 29° | 27° | — | 27° | — | — | 26–29° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 25° | 27° | 25° | — | 29° | — | — | 25–29° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 23° | 22° | 25° | 25° | 22° | — | — | 22–25° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 25° | 21° | 23° | 22° | 26° | — | — | 21–26° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 23° | 24° | 24° | 23° | 21° | — | — | 21–24° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 23° | 23° | 23° | 22° | 22° | 23° | 23° | 22–23° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 23° | 23° | 24° | 23° | 23° | 22° | 24° | 22–24° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 23° | 23° | 23° | 23° | 22° | 22° | 23° | 22–23° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 23° | 23° | 22° | 24° | 21° | 22° | 22° | 21–24° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 23° | 24° | 23° | 24° | 22° | 22° | 23° | 22–24° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 23° | 23° | 22° | 26° | 22° | 21° | 23° | 21–26° |
| actual | 23° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.