Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sun Sep 6?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 71° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 73°. The day verified at 74° against the BUF observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 62° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 79° | 72° | 71° | — | 72° | — | — | 71–79° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 78° | 80° | 77° | — | 78° | — | — | 77–80° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 78° | 85° | 77° | — | 91° | — | — | 77–91° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 79° | 84° | 80° | — | 80° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 77° | 81° | 78° | — | 84° | — | — | 77–84° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 73° | 71° | 77° | 77° | 72° | — | — | 71–77° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 78° | 70° | 73° | 72° | 80° | — | — | 70–80° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 74° | 75° | 75° | 73° | 70° | — | — | 70–75° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 73° | 73° | 74° | 72° | 72° | 73° | 73° | 72–74° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 73° | 73° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 72° | 74° | 72–74° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 74° | 74° | 73° | 74° | 71° | 72° | 74° | 71–74° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 73° | 74° | 71° | 75° | 70° | 71° | 72° | 70–75° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 73° | 75° | 73° | 75° | 72° | 72° | 73° | 72–75° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 73° | 73° | 71° | 78° | 72° | 70° | 73° | 70–78° |
| actual | 74° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.