Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sat Sep 12?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Sat Sep 12 high anywhere from 15° to 22°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 27°. The day verified at 27° against the BUF observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-28 | — | 22° | — | — | 26° | — | — | 22–26° |
| 14d · 2026-08-29 | 23° | 19° | — | — | 23° | — | — | 19–23° |
| 13d · 2026-08-30 | 22° | 22° | 17° | — | 15° | — | — | 15–22° |
| 12d · 2026-08-31 | 25° | 21° | 19° | — | 29° | — | — | 19–29° |
| 11d · 2026-09-01 | 25° | 28° | 24° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–28° |
| 10d · 2026-09-02 | 22° | 30° | 18° | — | 24° | — | — | 18–30° |
| 9d · 2026-09-03 | 19° | 29° | 17° | — | 23° | — | — | 17–29° |
| 8d · 2026-09-04 | 23° | 21° | 21° | 20° | 24° | — | — | 20–24° |
| 7d · 2026-09-05 | 25° | 18° | 21° | 26° | 25° | — | — | 18–26° |
| 6d · 2026-09-06 | 25° | 26° | 24° | 22° | 28° | 23° | — | 22–28° |
| 5d · 2026-09-07 | 25° | 25° | 24° | 24° | 26° | 24° | 25° | 24–26° |
| 4d · 2026-09-08 | 26° | 26° | 25° | 27° | 27° | 26° | 26° | 25–27° |
| 3d · 2026-09-09 | 26° | 27° | 25° | 25° | 28° | 26° | 26° | 25–28° |
| 2d · 2026-09-10 | 26° | 27° | 26° | 25° | 28° | 26° | 28° | 25–28° |
| 1d · 2026-09-11 | 26° | 27° | 27° | 31° | 25° | 26° | 28° | 25–31° |
| 0d · 2026-09-12 | 27° | 27° | 26° | 30° | 28° | 27° | 27° | 26–30° |
| actual | 27° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.