Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Tue Oct 6?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 14° to 18°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 14°. The day verified at 14° against the BUF observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 13° | — | — | 21° | — | — | 13–21° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 22° | 15° | — | — | 16° | — | — | 15–22° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 14° | 18° | 17° | — | 16° | — | — | 14–18° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 15° | 22° | 13° | — | 14° | — | — | 13–22° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 16° | 26° | 16° | — | 25° | — | — | 16–26° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 18° | 10° | 14° | — | 15° | — | — | 10–18° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 14° | 15° | 18° | 20° | 24° | — | — | 14–24° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 11° | 11° | 14° | 13° | 16° | — | — | 11–16° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 12° | 11° | 12° | 13° | 12° | — | — | 11–13° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 13° | 10° | 13° | 14° | 12° | 13° | 12° | 10–14° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 13° | 12° | 13° | 15° | 14° | 16° | 15° | 12–16° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 15° | 12° | 14° | 13° | 15° | 15° | 13° | 12–15° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 16° | 14° | 14° | 15° | 16° | 16° | 14° | 14–16° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 14° | 13° | 13° | 13° | 15° | 14° | 13° | 13–15° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 14° | 13° | 14° | 16° | 15° | 14° | 14° | 13–16° |
| actual | 14° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.