Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sun Aug 2?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
6 days out, 6 models put Buffalo's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 21° to 27°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 25°. The day verified at 25° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 12.2 mm of precipitation — rain.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-27 | 26° | 25° | 27° | 23° | 21° | 23° | — | 21–27° |
| 5d · 2026-07-28 | 23° | 21° | 24° | 22° | 23° | 24° | 31° | 21–31° |
| 4d · 2026-07-29 | 22° | 20° | 25° | 25° | 20° | 25° | 26° | 20–26° |
| 3d · 2026-07-30 | 23° | 21° | 24° | 23° | 25° | 22° | 26° | 21–26° |
| 2d · 2026-07-31 | 24° | 25° | 24° | 24° | 25° | 25° | 27° | 24–27° |
| 1d · 2026-08-01 | 23° | 23° | 24° | 27° | 24° | 24° | 26° | 23–27° |
| 0d · 2026-08-02 | 23° | 23° | 25° | 26° | 26° | 23° | 26° | 23–26° |
| actual | 25° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.