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Which weather model is most accurate in Buffalo?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Buffalo at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the BUF observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, ECMWF AIFS (AI) has been most accurate (typical miss 1.57°F); at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to ECMWF IFS, which has run cool by about 2.47°F at 3-day lead over this window.

Buffalo's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.6° (-0.8°) 2.1° (-1.0°) 5.0° (-2.0°) 29
NOAA GFS 2.0° (+0.6°) 2.5° (+0.5°) 5.1° (-1.1°) 29
UKMO (UK) 2.2° (-1.4°) 2.8° (-2.3°) — 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 2.2° (-1.7°) 2.5° (-1.8°) 5.9° (-1.6°) 29
DWD ICON 2.3° (-1.9°) 3.0° (-2.2°) — 29
ECMWF IFS 2.7° (-1.9°) 3.2° (-2.5°) 5.0° (-2.4°) 29
GEM (Canada) 2.9° (+1.9°) 2.5° (-1.3°) 4.8° (-0.8°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Buffalo point is the Buffalo Niagara Airport station (BUF), 8 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Buffalo Niagara Airport (BUF) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 50–66; it hit 70. GFS led (off 2.0°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 49–74; it hit 58. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 7°F warm.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 45–63; it hit 65. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 51–65; it hit 79. GEM led (off 0.8°F); UKMO ran 6°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 54–74; it hit 66. ICON led (off 0.1°F).
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 46–53; it hit 63. GEM led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 52–73; it hit 69. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 57–67; it hit 65. AIFS led (off 0.0°F).
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 55–68; it hit 66. GFS led (off 0.0°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 60–70; it hit 71. AIFS led (off 1.2°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 58–65; it hit 58. GFS led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 53–74; it hit 61. GFS led (off 0.4°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 60–74; it hit 69. GEM led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 58–66; it hit 64. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F); ICON ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 66–73; it hit 72. UKMO led (off 0.7°F); ICON ran 5°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 62–76; it hit 77. UKMO led (off 0.6°F); ICON ran 7°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 63–78; it hit 74. GFS led (off 0.4°F); ICON ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 62–85; it hit 68. UKMO led (off 0.7°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 63–75; it hit 64. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 58–73; it hit 69. GFS led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 57–68; it hit 71. GFS led (off 0.3°F); UKMO ran 2°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 64–72; it hit 68. AIFS led (off 0.4°F); UKMO ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 55–74; it hit 68. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 61–80; it hit 68. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 64–70; it hit 64. AIFS led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 64–74; it hit 61. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 48–67; it hit 68. GFS led (off 1.4°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 56–77; it hit 64. ICON led (off 1.1°F); GEM ran 10°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 68–72; it hit 72. GFS led (off 0.9°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 66–78; it hit 79. GEM led (off 1.0°F); AIGFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 65–84; it hit 77. GEM led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 66–85; it hit 79. GFS led (off 1.4°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 66–86; it hit 68. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 63–84; it hit 78. GFS led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 61–81; it hit 81. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 67–95; it hit 73. ICON led (off 1.8°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 72–83; it hit 78. GEM led (off 1.1°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 71–74; it hit 78. AIGFS led (off 0.8°F); ICON ran 5°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 71–85; it hit 80. GFS led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 71–84; it hit 76. GFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 71–79; it hit 74. AIGFS led (off 0.8°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 70–74; it hit 76. GFS led (off 1.5°F); ICON ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 66–71; it hit 77. ICON led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 3 13 days out the models said 68–77; it hit 79. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 12 days out the models said 69–83; it hit 83. GEM led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 6°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 11 days out the models said 72–80; it hit 84. GEM led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 31 10 days out the models said 78–80; it hit 73. GFS led (off 0.2°F); ICON ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 30 9 days out the models said 72–87; it hit 70. AIFS led (off 0.4°F); GEM ran 7°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 8 days out the models said 65–84; it hit 79. GFS led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 28 7 days out the models said 69–76; it hit 73. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 6 days out the models said 76–81; it hit 78. GFS led (off 0.6°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 26 5 days out the models said 74–76; it hit 81. GFS led (off 0.9°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 25 4 days out the models said 69–73; it hit 75. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 19 14 days out the models said 71–77; it hit 78. ICON led (off 0.9°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 75–82; it hit 77. ICON led (off 0.2°F); UKMO ran 2°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 71–79; it hit 80. ICON led (off 0.3°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 72–79; it hit 84. UKMO led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 77–82; it hit 83. GFS led (off 1.2°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 72–81; it hit 82. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 75–79; it hit 80. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 68–88; it hit 77. AIFS led (off 0.9°F); UKMO ran 7°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 73–87; it hit 81. ICON led (off 1.0°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 78–84; it hit 77. ECMWF led (off 0.4°F); UKMO ran 6°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 79–85; it hit 79. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 74–90; it hit 78. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 74–86; it hit 78. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); UKMO ran 7°F warm.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 75–85; it hit 83. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 80–88; it hit 85. ICON led (off 0.9°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 78–89; it hit 79. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 74–83; it hit 77. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 70–82; it hit 76. ECMWF led (off 1.7°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 74–84; it hit 85. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 76–83; it hit 82. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); UKMO ran 3°F warm.
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 74–81; it hit 79. GFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.

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