Which weather model is most accurate in Buffalo?

Outlook Model accuracy

Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Buffalo at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the BUF observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-08-04 to 2026-09-02), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (3.25°F).

The largest standing bias belongs to GEM (Canada), which has run cool by about 3.33°F at 3-day lead over this window.

The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 1.12°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model	1-day	3-day	7-day	Days
UKMO (UK)	1.8° (-0.5°)	2.6° (-0.5°)	—	30
DWD ICON	1.8° (-1.2°)	2.3° (-0.5°)	—	30
NOAA GFS	2.0° (+1.1°)	2.5° (+1.1°)	4.6° (+1.4°)	30
ECMWF AIFS (AI)	2.3° (-2.2°)	3.0° (-1.7°)	3.2° (-2.3°)	30
NOAA AIGFS (AI)	2.5° (-2.0°)	3.3° (-1.9°)	5.0° (-3.0°)	30
GEM (Canada)	2.6° (+2.2°)	4.1° (-3.3°)	4.6° (-3.0°)	30
ECMWF IFS	2.8° (-2.2°)	2.9° (-1.9°)	4.2° (-2.2°)	30
NBM (US blend)	1.6° (-0.5°)	2.5° (-0.7°)	3.4° (-1.0°)	30
Blended (bias-corrected)	1.1° (-0.0°)	1.8° (+0.0°)	2.8° (+0.0°)	30

Method, honestly

The Spread's Buffalo point is the Buffalo Intl station (BUF), 8 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is BUF observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

Tue Sep 1 10 days out the models said 70–78; it hit 84. GEM led (off 1.3°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cold.
Mon Aug 31 9 days out the models said 76–80; it hit 73. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 2°F hot.
Sun Aug 30 8 days out the models said 70–77; it hit 70. ICON led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 10°F hot.
Sat Aug 29 7 days out the models said 66–75; it hit 79. ICON led (off 1.2°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cold.
Fri Aug 28 6 days out the models said 68–78; it hit 73. GEM led (off 0.8°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cold.
Thu Aug 27 5 days out the models said 75–84; it hit 78. GFS led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cold.
Wed Aug 26 4 days out the models said 74–79; it hit 81. UKMO led (off 1.0°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cold.
Tue Aug 25 3 days out the models said 69–73; it hit 75. GFS led (off 0.9°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cold.
Wed Aug 19 13 days out the models said 74–80; it hit 78. ICON led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 4°F cold.
Tue Aug 18 13 days out the models said 72–78; it hit 77. ICON led (off 0.2°F).
Mon Aug 17 13 days out the models said 70–74; it hit 80. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cold.
Sun Aug 16 13 days out the models said 68–81; it hit 84. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); ICON ran 3°F cold.
Sat Aug 15 13 days out the models said 76–90; it hit 83. GFS led (off 1.6°F); GEM ran 4°F hot.
Fri Aug 14 13 days out the models said 76–83; it hit 82. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 4°F hot.
Thu Aug 13 13 days out the models said 70–80; it hit 80. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 4°F hot.
Wed Aug 12 13 days out the models said 68–80; it hit 77. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 4°F hot.
Tue Aug 11 13 days out the models said 74–81; it hit 81. GFS led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 3°F hot.
Mon Aug 10 13 days out the models said 74–82; it hit 77. GEM led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 6°F hot.
Sun Aug 9 13 days out the models said 71–84; it hit 79. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 5°F hot.
Sat Aug 8 12 days out the models said 70–86; it hit 78. ECMWF led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 4°F hot.
Fri Aug 7 11 days out the models said 75–86; it hit 78. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cold.
Thu Aug 6 10 days out the models said 79–84; it hit 83. ICON led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 4°F hot.
Wed Aug 5 9 days out the models said 82–84; it hit 85. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 4°F hot.
Tue Aug 4 8 days out the models said 77–83; it hit 79. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 4°F hot.
Mon Aug 3 7 days out the models said 73–82; it hit 77. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); GEM ran 5°F hot.
Sun Aug 2 6 days out the models said 70–81; it hit 76. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cold.
Sat Aug 1 5 days out the models said 76–86; it hit 85. ICON led (off 0.7°F); GFS ran 3°F hot.
Fri Jul 31 4 days out the models said 77–84; it hit 82. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 3°F hot.
Thu Jul 30 3 days out the models said 73–81; it hit 79. ECMWF led (off 0.7°F); GEM ran 6°F hot.

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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.