Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Thu Oct 15?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 49° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 58°. The day verified at 58° against the BUF observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 7° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 48° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 48–66° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 49° | 62° | 70° | — | 74° | — | — | 49–74° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 57° | 55° | 71° | — | 67° | — | — | 55–71° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 75° | 44° | 61° | — | 73° | — | — | 44–75° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 64° | 43° | 77° | — | 59° | — | — | 43–77° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 60° | 61° | 58° | — | 68° | — | — | 58–68° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 55° | 56° | 50° | 53° | 62° | — | — | 50–62° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 53° | 54° | 50° | 56° | 64° | — | — | 50–64° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 56° | 68° | 62° | 68° | 56° | — | — | 56–68° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 55° | 64° | 55° | 58° | 60° | 56° | 59° | 55–64° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 56° | 56° | 57° | 58° | 59° | 62° | 58° | 56–62° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 55° | 59° | 59° | 57° | 60° | 54° | 58° | 54–60° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 57° | 57° | 59° | 61° | 57° | 55° | 55–61° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 58° | 57° | 57° | 60° | 62° | 55° | 55° | 55–62° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 58° | 58° | 58° | 65° | 64° | 57° | 55° | 55–65° |
| actual | 58° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.