Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sat Aug 1?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
6 days out, 7 models put Buffalo's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 74° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 85° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.06 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-26 | 81° | 80° | 78° | 75° | 82° | 74° | 84° | 74–84° |
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 80° | 72° | 81° | 79° | 85° | 82° | 88° | 72–88° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 81° | 81° | 83° | 78° | 86° | 85° | 89° | 78–89° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 80° | 81° | 79° | 80° | 89° | 83° | 84° | 79–89° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 83° | 83° | 85° | 82° | 89° | 85° | 87° | 82–89° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 84° | 83° | 86° | 89° | 88° | 86° | 85° | 83–89° |
| actual | 85° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.