Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Tue Sep 1?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
10 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 70° to 78°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 84° against the BUF observations — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.3°. ECMWF ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 71° | 76° | 70° | — | 78° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 79° | 75° | 76° | — | 84° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 83° | 65° | 81° | 72° | 66° | — | — | 65–83° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 82° | 74° | 75° | 83° | 82° | — | — | 74–83° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 80° | 84° | 84° | 81° | 85° | 83° | — | 80–85° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 79° | 81° | 83° | 80° | 85° | 86° | 82° | 79–86° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 76° | 82° | 83° | 80° | 82° | 81° | 84° | 76–84° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 78° | 82° | 81° | 77° | 81° | 84° | 82° | 77–84° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 80° | 82° | 81° | 82° | 79° | 82° | 83° | 79–83° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 79° | 81° | 83° | 83° | 82° | 83° | 83° | 79–83° |
| 0d · 2026-09-01 | 80° | 81° | 80° | 83° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 80–83° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.