Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Tue Sep 1?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
11 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 72° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 84° against the BUF observations — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-21 | 80° | 72° | 80° | — | 79° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 79° | 76° | 68° | — | 80° | — | — | 68–80° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 83° | 70° | 81° | 74° | 66° | — | — | 66–83° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 79° | 75° | 76° | 80° | 76° | — | — | 75–80° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 79° | 81° | 79° | 84° | 80° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 79° | 78° | 76° | 77° | 73° | 83° | 85° | 73–85° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 79° | 80° | 80° | 77° | 82° | 86° | 80° | 77–86° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 76° | 79° | 82° | 77° | 83° | 81° | 83° | 76–83° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 78° | 81° | 80° | 78° | 82° | 80° | 82° | 78–82° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 80° | 81° | 82° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 84° | 80–84° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 79° | 80° | 80° | 84° | 80° | 80° | 82° | 79–84° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.