Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Tue Oct 6?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Tue Oct 6 high anywhere from 58° to 65°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 57°. The day verified at 58° against the BUF observations — partly cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-21 | — | 56° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 56–70° |
| 14d · 2026-09-22 | 72° | 60° | — | — | 60° | — | — | 60–72° |
| 13d · 2026-09-23 | 58° | 65° | 62° | — | 60° | — | — | 58–65° |
| 12d · 2026-09-24 | 59° | 71° | 56° | — | 58° | — | — | 56–71° |
| 11d · 2026-09-25 | 61° | 78° | 60° | — | 77° | — | — | 60–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-26 | 65° | 50° | 56° | — | 58° | — | — | 50–65° |
| 9d · 2026-09-27 | 56° | 59° | 64° | 68° | 76° | — | — | 56–76° |
| 8d · 2026-09-28 | 51° | 52° | 57° | 56° | 61° | — | — | 51–61° |
| 7d · 2026-09-29 | 54° | 51° | 53° | 56° | 53° | — | — | 51–56° |
| 6d · 2026-09-30 | 55° | 51° | 56° | 57° | 54° | 56° | 54° | 51–57° |
| 5d · 2026-10-01 | 56° | 54° | 56° | 59° | 58° | 61° | 60° | 54–61° |
| 4d · 2026-10-02 | 58° | 54° | 56° | 55° | 59° | 58° | 56° | 54–59° |
| 3d · 2026-10-03 | 60° | 57° | 57° | 59° | 62° | 60° | 58° | 57–62° |
| 2d · 2026-10-04 | 58° | 55° | 56° | 56° | 59° | 57° | 55° | 55–59° |
| 1d · 2026-10-05 | 57° | 55° | 57° | 60° | 59° | 57° | 57° | 55–60° |
| actual | 58° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.