Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sat Oct 17?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 48° to 67°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 47°. The day verified at 47° against the BUF observations, with 0.05 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 48° | — | — | 44° | — | — | 44–48° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 67° | 53° | 48° | — | 52° | — | — | 48–67° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 66° | 56° | 62° | — | 53° | — | — | 53–66° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 57° | 62° | 73° | — | 63° | — | — | 57–73° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 48° | 44° | 51° | — | 58° | — | — | 44–58° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 51° | 56° | 52° | — | 80° | — | — | 51–80° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 47° | 61° | 57° | 51° | 62° | — | — | 47–62° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 49° | 52° | 50° | 49° | 61° | — | — | 49–61° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 44° | 50° | 47° | 52° | 52° | — | — | 44–52° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 46° | 44° | 50° | 53° | 44° | 45° | 50° | 44–53° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 45° | 48° | 50° | 45° | 55° | 49° | 45–55° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 46° | 47° | 45° | 47° | 50° | 45° | 48° | 45–50° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 46° | 44° | 49° | 44° | 46° | 46° | 48° | 44–49° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 46° | 44° | 48° | 46° | 47° | 47° | 47° | 44–48° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 46° | 45° | 48° | 49° | 47° | 46° | 48° | 45–49° |
| actual | 47° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.