Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Fri Oct 16?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 50° to 66°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 70° against the BUF observations, with 0.72 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.0°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 64° | — | — | 66° | — | — | 64–66° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 52° | 50° | 66° | — | 62° | — | — | 50–66° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 65° | 45° | 53° | — | 66° | — | — | 45–66° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 66° | 53° | 67° | — | 55° | — | — | 53–67° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 59° | 60° | 71° | — | 61° | — | — | 59–71° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 52° | 54° | 46° | — | 64° | — | — | 46–64° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 59° | 68° | 54° | 56° | 82° | — | — | 54–82° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 61° | 71° | 68° | 58° | 75° | — | — | 58–75° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 52° | 70° | 56° | 65° | 69° | — | — | 52–70° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 54° | 63° | 52° | 69° | 68° | 72° | 52° | 52–72° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 52° | 63° | 56° | 54° | 58° | 55° | 55° | 52–63° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 64° | 56° | 58° | 67° | 57° | 53° | 53–67° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 63° | 64° | 65° | 67° | 64° | 66° | 61° | 61–67° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 65° | 66° | 67° | 68° | 70° | 67° | 68° | 65–70° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 67° | 68° | 66° | 67° | 68° | 68° | 68° | 66–68° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.