Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Wed Sep 9?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 71° to 74°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 78° against the BUF observations, with 0.13 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. ICON ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 74° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 74–76° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 74° | 73° | 72° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–74° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 78° | 83° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–83° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 79° | 77° | 89° | — | 92° | — | — | 77–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 69° | 80° | 77° | — | 87° | — | — | 69–87° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 80° | 80° | 72° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 82° | 83° | 68° | 80° | 76° | — | — | 68–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 80° | 77° | 81° | 82° | 80° | — | — | 77–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 75° | 86° | 80° | 80° | 84° | — | — | 75–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 75° | 79° | 73° | 78° | 74° | 80° | 83° | 73–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 83° | 85° | 81° | 80° | 85° | 84° | 82° | 80–85° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 79° | 83° | 76° | 80° | 74° | 79° | 80° | 74–83° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 80° | 79° | 80° | 82° | 73° | 79° | 81° | 73–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 77° | 80° | 80° | 83° | 80° | 82° | 80° | 77–83° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 75° | 79° | 75° | 82° | 76° | 73° | 76° | 73–82° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.