Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Wed Sep 9?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 70° to 88°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 78° against the BUF observations, with 0.13 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.4°. ECMWF ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-25 | — | 77° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 74–77° |
| 14d · 2026-08-26 | 83° | 62° | — | — | 70° | — | — | 62–83° |
| 13d · 2026-08-27 | 72° | 70° | 88° | — | 72° | — | — | 70–88° |
| 12d · 2026-08-28 | 77° | 75° | 71° | — | 74° | — | — | 71–77° |
| 11d · 2026-08-29 | 79° | 82° | 80° | — | 92° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-30 | 82° | 79° | 73° | — | 83° | — | — | 73–83° |
| 9d · 2026-08-31 | 79° | 83° | 76° | — | 71° | — | — | 71–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-01 | 82° | 69° | 76° | 83° | 63° | — | — | 63–83° |
| 7d · 2026-09-02 | 76° | 84° | 82° | 81° | 83° | — | — | 76–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-03 | 75° | 83° | 79° | 80° | 75° | 81° | — | 75–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-04 | 80° | 79° | 79° | 79° | 87° | 84° | 79° | 79–87° |
| 4d · 2026-09-05 | 81° | 82° | 78° | 79° | 84° | 82° | 80° | 78–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-06 | 77° | 82° | 78° | 80° | 77° | 81° | 79° | 77–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-07 | 76° | 82° | 80° | 82° | 77° | 80° | 82° | 76–82° |
| 1d · 2026-09-08 | 75° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 80° | 74° | 78° | 74–82° |
| 0d · 2026-09-09 | 76° | 77° | 72° | 83° | 81° | 76° | 81° | 72–83° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.