Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Thu Oct 1?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 62° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 77° against the BUF observations, with 0.13 in of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.6°. ICON ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 66° | — | — | 71° | — | — | 66–71° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 68° | 76° | 62° | — | 64° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 66° | 69° | 57° | — | 66° | — | — | 57–69° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 65° | 65° | 67° | — | 81° | — | — | 65–81° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 54° | 70° | 71° | — | 72° | — | — | 54–72° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 77° | 70° | 77° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–77° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 71° | 68° | 77° | 77° | 72° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 70° | 70° | 81° | 66° | 61° | — | — | 61–81° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 74° | 72° | 72° | 70° | 79° | — | — | 70–79° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 71° | 71° | 72° | 73° | 70° | 79° | 72° | 70–79° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 79° | 79° | 68° | 72° | 67° | 70° | 69° | 67–79° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 77° | 80° | 73° | 76° | 83° | 75° | 78° | 73–83° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 75° | 79° | 73° | 76° | 82° | 70° | 77° | 70–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 73° | 75° | 71° | 73° | 80° | 69° | 71° | 69–80° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 74° | 73° | 73° | 75° | 76° | 70° | 76° | 70–76° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.