Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Thu Sep 3?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 68° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 79° against the BUF observations, with 3.04 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-21 | 70° | 68° | 77° | — | 76° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 74° | 68° | 72° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 76° | 76° | 70° | — | 74° | — | — | 70–76° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 74° | 76° | 80° | — | 77° | — | — | 74–80° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 77° | 75° | 79° | 77° | 88° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 77° | 78° | 79° | 71° | 79° | — | — | 71–79° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 76° | 76° | 73° | 71° | 84° | — | — | 71–84° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 76° | 76° | 74° | 72° | 79° | 83° | 76° | 72–83° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 80° | 77° | 81° | 77° | 83° | 78° | 80° | 77–83° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 79° | 77° | 77° | 73° | 79° | 78° | 84° | 73–84° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 79° | 77° | 79° | 74° | 82° | 77° | 78° | 74–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 78° | 79° | 80° | 77° | 80° | 78° | 82° | 77–82° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 79° | 80° | 80° | 80° | 82° | 80° | 81° | 79–82° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.