Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Thu Sep 3?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
12 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 66° to 78°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 79° against the BUF observations, with 3.04 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 78° | 67° | 72° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–78° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 71° | 63° | 66° | — | 73° | — | — | 63–73° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 73° | 72° | 78° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–78° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 77° | 74° | 78° | — | 76° | — | — | 74–78° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 77° | 76° | 80° | 75° | 80° | — | — | 75–80° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 76° | 75° | 80° | 80° | 85° | — | — | 75–85° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 76° | 75° | 78° | 75° | 85° | 81° | — | 75–85° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 78° | 77° | 78° | 75° | 77° | 85° | 78° | 75–85° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 80° | 77° | 80° | 72° | 81° | 80° | 80° | 72–81° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 79° | 77° | 80° | 75° | 81° | 78° | 82° | 75–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 78° | 79° | 80° | 73° | 80° | 78° | 81° | 73–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 77° | 79° | 79° | 82° | 79° | 81° | 81° | 77–82° |
| 0d · 2026-09-03 | 79° | 80° | 80° | 82° | 83° | 81° | 82° | 79–83° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.