Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sun Oct 25?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Sun Oct 25 high anywhere from 44° to 61°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 64° against the BUF observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-10 | — | 54° | — | — | 43° | — | — | 43–54° |
| 14d · 2026-10-11 | 58° | 61° | 54° | — | 44° | — | — | 44–61° |
| 13d · 2026-10-12 | — | 61° | 60° | — | 53° | — | — | 53–61° |
| 12d · 2026-10-13 | 69° | 58° | 52° | — | 56° | — | — | 52–69° |
| 11d · 2026-10-14 | 62° | 62° | 55° | — | 71° | — | — | 55–71° |
| 10d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 73° | 66° | — | 70° | — | — | 65–73° |
| 9d · 2026-10-16 | 63° | 55° | 63° | 61° | 64° | — | — | 55–64° |
| 8d · 2026-10-17 | 63° | 64° | 61° | 59° | 70° | — | — | 59–70° |
| 7d · 2026-10-18 | 65° | 66° | 60° | 60° | 65° | — | — | 60–66° |
| 6d · 2026-10-19 | 65° | 67° | 59° | 61° | 66° | 62° | 60° | 59–67° |
| 5d · 2026-10-20 | 65° | 66° | 61° | 61° | 64° | 65° | 59° | 59–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-21 | 64° | 66° | 60° | 61° | 65° | 63° | 61° | 60–66° |
| 3d · 2026-10-22 | 65° | 65° | 60° | 61° | 64° | 64° | 60° | 60–65° |
| 2d · 2026-10-23 | 64° | 64° | 60° | 61° | 64° | 62° | 60° | 60–64° |
| 1d · 2026-10-24 | 63° | 64° | 60° | 64° | 64° | 62° | 60° | 60–64° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.