Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Thu Aug 27?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
6 days out, 7 models put Buffalo's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 76° to 81°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 78° against the BUF observations, with 0.02 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-21 | 76° | 81° | 78° | 78° | 80° | 76° | 79° | 76–81° |
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 74° | 80° | 77° | 79° | 80° | 81° | 79° | 74–81° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 75° | 80° | 74° | 76° | 80° | 73° | 76° | 73–80° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 76° | 78° | 75° | 75° | 78° | 76° | 77° | 75–78° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 77° | 77° | 75° | 74° | 80° | 76° | 75° | 74–80° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 76° | 77° | 74° | 79° | 79° | 75° | 76° | 74–79° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.