Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Mon Sep 14?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Mon Sep 14 high anywhere from 65° to 75°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 68° against the BUF observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. UKMO ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-30 | — | 69° | — | — | 74° | — | — | 69–74° |
| 14d · 2026-08-31 | 72° | 77° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 13d · 2026-09-01 | 65° | 75° | 68° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–75° |
| 12d · 2026-09-02 | 76° | 60° | 79° | — | 87° | — | — | 60–87° |
| 11d · 2026-09-03 | 71° | 85° | 71° | — | 74° | — | — | 71–85° |
| 10d · 2026-09-04 | 77° | 60° | 72° | — | 64° | — | — | 60–77° |
| 9d · 2026-09-05 | 67° | 81° | 67° | — | 85° | — | — | 67–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-06 | 64° | 84° | 83° | 67° | 81° | — | — | 64–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-07 | 68° | 64° | 71° | 64° | 75° | — | — | 64–75° |
| 6d · 2026-09-08 | 65° | 62° | 70° | 60° | 82° | 64° | — | 60–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-09 | 65° | 65° | 81° | 68° | 83° | 77° | 83° | 65–83° |
| 4d · 2026-09-10 | 64° | 66° | 67° | 62° | 72° | 67° | 65° | 62–72° |
| 3d · 2026-09-11 | 65° | 64° | 66° | 66° | 65° | 62° | 67° | 62–67° |
| 2d · 2026-09-12 | 65° | 63° | 66° | 65° | 66° | 64° | 66° | 63–66° |
| 1d · 2026-09-13 | 65° | 64° | 67° | 69° | 68° | 64° | 66° | 64–69° |
| 0d · 2026-09-14 | 66° | 66° | 66° | 70° | 69° | 66° | 66° | 66–70° |
| actual | 68° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.