Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Fri Oct 2?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Fri Oct 2 high anywhere from 66° to 73°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 72° against the BUF observations, with 0.66 in of precipitation — showers.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.7°. ICON ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-17 | — | 68° | — | — | 64° | — | — | 64–68° |
| 14d · 2026-09-18 | 73° | 73° | 66° | — | 70° | — | — | 66–73° |
| 13d · 2026-09-19 | 58° | 57° | 69° | — | 68° | — | — | 57–69° |
| 12d · 2026-09-20 | 61° | 75° | 73° | — | 71° | — | — | 61–75° |
| 11d · 2026-09-21 | 70° | 58° | 79° | — | 73° | — | — | 58–79° |
| 10d · 2026-09-22 | 67° | 56° | 79° | — | 79° | — | — | 56–79° |
| 9d · 2026-09-23 | 67° | 66° | 67° | 69° | 70° | — | — | 66–70° |
| 8d · 2026-09-24 | 78° | 82° | 72° | 70° | 88° | — | — | 70–88° |
| 7d · 2026-09-25 | 64° | 83° | 65° | 75° | 84° | — | — | 64–84° |
| 6d · 2026-09-26 | 65° | 68° | 63° | 69° | 66° | 67° | 64° | 63–69° |
| 5d · 2026-09-27 | 67° | 68° | 63° | 74° | 71° | 72° | 64° | 63–74° |
| 4d · 2026-09-28 | 69° | 70° | 63° | 71° | 70° | 64° | 66° | 63–71° |
| 3d · 2026-09-29 | 68° | 68° | 65° | 72° | 76° | 67° | 65° | 65–76° |
| 2d · 2026-09-30 | 72° | 69° | 69° | 71° | 73° | 72° | 67° | 67–73° |
| 1d · 2026-10-01 | 71° | 68° | 69° | 68° | 68° | 67° | 71° | 67–71° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.