Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Mon Sep 7?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 69° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 76° against the BUF observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. UKMO ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-23 | — | 68° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 68–84° |
| 14d · 2026-08-24 | 70° | 69° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 69–79° |
| 13d · 2026-08-25 | 76° | 69° | 71° | — | 84° | — | — | 69–84° |
| 12d · 2026-08-26 | 78° | 88° | 77° | — | 83° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-27 | 79° | 86° | 79° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 10d · 2026-08-28 | 78° | 86° | 85° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 9d · 2026-08-29 | 77° | 68° | 73° | — | 83° | — | — | 68–83° |
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 76° | 68° | 76° | 74° | 77° | — | — | 68–77° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 76° | 76° | 74° | 74° | 78° | — | — | 74–78° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 74° | 75° | 77° | 76° | 77° | 74° | — | 74–77° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 76° | 77° | 77° | 76° | 77° | 75° | 78° | 75–78° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 75° | 76° | 74° | 76° | 76° | 77° | 74° | 74–77° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 74° | 75° | 74° | 75° | 77° | 76° | 75° | 74–77° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 74° | 74° | 74° | 76° | 76° | 74° | 74° | 74–76° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 74° | 74° | 74° | 79° | 77° | 74° | 72° | 72–79° |
| 0d · 2026-09-07 | 74° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 77° | 74° | 72° | 72–78° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.