Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Mon Oct 19?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Mon Oct 19 high anywhere from 48° to 66°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 63°. The day verified at 64° against the BUF observations — clear.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-04 | — | 51° | — | — | 50° | — | — | 50–51° |
| 14d · 2026-10-05 | 48° | 66° | 65° | — | 56° | — | — | 48–66° |
| 13d · 2026-10-06 | 66° | 57° | 62° | — | 58° | — | — | 57–66° |
| 12d · 2026-10-07 | 74° | 53° | 50° | — | 59° | — | — | 50–74° |
| 11d · 2026-10-08 | 47° | 64° | 52° | — | 57° | — | — | 47–64° |
| 10d · 2026-10-09 | 58° | 58° | 59° | — | 52° | — | — | 52–59° |
| 9d · 2026-10-10 | 63° | 51° | 63° | 54° | 49° | — | — | 49–63° |
| 8d · 2026-10-11 | 66° | 60° | 58° | 62° | 61° | — | — | 58–66° |
| 7d · 2026-10-12 | — | 64° | 59° | 60° | 60° | — | — | 59–64° |
| 6d · 2026-10-13 | 64° | 63° | 60° | 60° | 65° | 58° | 61° | 58–65° |
| 5d · 2026-10-14 | 66° | 62° | 62° | 62° | 62° | 62° | 62° | 62–66° |
| 4d · 2026-10-15 | 66° | 64° | 62° | 61° | 65° | 62° | 63° | 61–66° |
| 3d · 2026-10-16 | 66° | 65° | 61° | 61° | 64° | 62° | 62° | 61–66° |
| 2d · 2026-10-17 | 65° | 65° | 62° | 60° | 64° | 62° | 62° | 60–65° |
| 1d · 2026-10-18 | 66° | 65° | 61° | 64° | 63° | 63° | 61° | 61–66° |
| actual | 64° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.