Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Thu Sep 17?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Thu Sep 17 high anywhere from 67° to 79°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 76°. The day verified at 79° against the BUF observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.7°. AIGFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-02 | — | 64° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 64–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-03 | 76° | 76° | — | — | 62° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 13d · 2026-09-04 | 67° | 74° | 74° | — | 79° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 12d · 2026-09-05 | 78° | 70° | 70° | — | 71° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 11d · 2026-09-06 | 88° | 78° | 66° | — | 70° | — | — | 66–88° |
| 10d · 2026-09-07 | 66° | 62° | 67° | — | 71° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 9d · 2026-09-08 | 77° | 85° | 69° | — | 74° | — | — | 69–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-09 | 79° | 83° | 72° | 77° | 70° | — | — | 70–83° |
| 7d · 2026-09-10 | 77° | 67° | 79° | 68° | 64° | — | — | 64–79° |
| 6d · 2026-09-11 | 72° | 67° | 71° | 71° | 81° | 69° | — | 67–81° |
| 5d · 2026-09-12 | 71° | 74° | 80° | 74° | 74° | 76° | 86° | 71–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-13 | 68° | 64° | 70° | 73° | 72° | 73° | 75° | 64–75° |
| 3d · 2026-09-14 | 73° | 70° | 77° | 77° | 81° | 75° | 76° | 70–81° |
| 2d · 2026-09-15 | 74° | 66° | 70° | 72° | 75° | 74° | 76° | 66–76° |
| 1d · 2026-09-16 | 73° | 70° | 73° | 80° | 74° | 76° | 78° | 70–80° |
| 0d · 2026-09-17 | 75° | 73° | 77° | 81° | 82° | 74° | 76° | 73–82° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.