Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Wed Oct 21?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Wed Oct 21 high anywhere from 53° to 66°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 60°. The day verified at 63° against the BUF observations — clear.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-06 | — | 54° | — | — | 61° | — | — | 54–61° |
| 14d · 2026-10-07 | 53° | 66° | 63° | — | 53° | — | — | 53–66° |
| 13d · 2026-10-08 | 63° | 56° | 61° | — | 60° | — | — | 56–63° |
| 12d · 2026-10-09 | 64° | 62° | 73° | — | 66° | — | — | 62–73° |
| 11d · 2026-10-10 | 58° | 65° | 66° | — | 60° | — | — | 58–66° |
| 10d · 2026-10-11 | 53° | 53° | 58° | — | 71° | — | — | 53–71° |
| 9d · 2026-10-12 | — | 56° | 52° | 65° | 67° | — | — | 52–67° |
| 8d · 2026-10-13 | 69° | 55° | 64° | 61° | 64° | — | — | 55–69° |
| 7d · 2026-10-14 | 66° | 66° | 60° | 62° | 66° | — | — | 60–66° |
| 6d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 63° | 62° | 60° | 62° | 63° | 62° | 60–65° |
| 5d · 2026-10-16 | 64° | 63° | 64° | 57° | 58° | 62° | 62° | 57–64° |
| 4d · 2026-10-17 | 61° | 60° | 58° | 58° | 60° | 56° | 57° | 56–61° |
| 3d · 2026-10-18 | 60° | 59° | 58° | 58° | 61° | 58° | 56° | 56–61° |
| 2d · 2026-10-19 | 61° | 60° | 59° | 60° | 63° | 59° | 49° | 49–63° |
| 1d · 2026-10-20 | 62° | 60° | 59° | 63° | 62° | 60° | 57° | 57–63° |
| actual | 63° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.