Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Wed Sep 23?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
14 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 61° to 80°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 68° against the BUF observations — partly cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-08 | — | 62° | — | — | 58° | — | — | 58–62° |
| 14d · 2026-09-09 | 70° | 65° | 61° | — | 80° | — | — | 61–80° |
| 13d · 2026-09-10 | 67° | 61° | 58° | — | 73° | — | — | 58–73° |
| 12d · 2026-09-11 | 65° | 72° | 73° | — | 69° | — | — | 65–73° |
| 11d · 2026-09-12 | 62° | 64° | 66° | — | 72° | — | — | 62–72° |
| 10d · 2026-09-13 | 77° | 64° | 64° | — | 72° | — | — | 64–77° |
| 9d · 2026-09-14 | 56° | 66° | 66° | 69° | 55° | — | — | 55–69° |
| 8d · 2026-09-15 | 70° | 72° | 76° | 62° | 71° | — | — | 62–76° |
| 7d · 2026-09-16 | 59° | 64° | 61° | 62° | 64° | — | — | 59–64° |
| 6d · 2026-09-17 | 64° | 50° | 62° | 56° | 57° | 56° | 60° | 50–64° |
| 5d · 2026-09-18 | 65° | 62° | 64° | 58° | 56° | 67° | 67° | 56–67° |
| 4d · 2026-09-19 | 67° | 66° | 63° | 64° | 59° | 66° | 66° | 59–67° |
| 3d · 2026-09-20 | 67° | 66° | 64° | 65° | 67° | 66° | 66° | 64–67° |
| 2d · 2026-09-21 | 68° | 66° | 64° | 66° | 68° | 66° | 67° | 64–68° |
| 1d · 2026-09-22 | 68° | 68° | 64° | 70° | 69° | 67° | 67° | 64–70° |
| actual | 68° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.