Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Wed Aug 26?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
5 days out, 7 models put Buffalo's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 74° to 76°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 81° against the BUF observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-21 | 76° | 76° | 74° | 75° | 76° | 76° | 75° | 74–76° |
| 4d · 2026-08-22 | 77° | 76° | 75° | 77° | 77° | 76° | 76° | 75–77° |
| 3d · 2026-08-23 | 77° | 77° | 76° | 77° | 79° | 79° | 78° | 76–79° |
| 2d · 2026-08-24 | 77° | 78° | 77° | 77° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 77–80° |
| 1d · 2026-08-25 | 78° | 79° | 78° | 82° | 80° | 79° | 79° | 78–82° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.