Was the forecast right for Buffalo on Sun Sep 20?
Buffalo, New York · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the BUF observations
13 days out, 4 models put Buffalo's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 15° to 23°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 18°. The day verified at 20° against the BUF observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.3°. AIGFS ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Buffalo scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 14° | — | — | 24° | — | — | 14–24° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 20° | 12° | — | — | 23° | — | — | 12–23° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 23° | 15° | 20° | — | 21° | — | — | 15–23° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 19° | 17° | 19° | — | 21° | — | — | 17–21° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 20° | 19° | 24° | — | 27° | — | — | 19–27° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 20° | 22° | 21° | — | 23° | — | — | 20–23° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 15° | 17° | 18° | — | 19° | — | — | 15–19° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 18° | 17° | 20° | 19° | 17° | — | — | 17–20° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 22° | 17° | 19° | 24° | 18° | — | — | 17–24° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 21° | 21° | 21° | 23° | 18° | 22° | — | 18–23° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 19° | 19° | 19° | 20° | 18° | 18° | 19° | 18–20° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 19° | 16° | 18° | 19° | 16° | 19° | 19° | 16–19° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 18° | 16° | 18° | 19° | 17° | 18° | 19° | 16–19° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 18° | 16° | 18° | 20° | 16° | 19° | 17° | 16–20° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 18° | 16° | 18° | 23° | 17° | 18° | 17° | 16–23° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 18° | 18° | 18° | 22° | 21° | 18° | 19° | 18–22° |
| actual | 20° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Buffalo — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the BUF observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.