Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Sep 6?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 22° to 35°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 29°. The day verified at 27° against the MSP observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 24° | 20° | — | — | 29° | — | — | 20–29° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 25° | 22° | 26° | — | 35° | — | — | 22–35° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 24° | 22° | 22° | — | 23° | — | — | 22–24° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 21° | 21° | 22° | — | 23° | — | — | 21–23° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 24° | 22° | 28° | — | 34° | — | — | 22–34° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 29° | 32° | 29° | — | 30° | — | — | 29–32° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 28° | 26° | 31° | 32° | 37° | — | — | 26–37° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 29° | 27° | 30° | 34° | 30° | — | — | 27–34° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 27° | 28° | 30° | 32° | 32° | 28° | — | 27–32° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 25° | 26° | 31° | 27° | 31° | 32° | 31° | 25–32° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 25° | 28° | 29° | 28° | 31° | 29° | 34° | 25–34° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 24° | 27° | 30° | 30° | 27° | 27° | 32° | 24–32° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 25° | 26° | 25° | 26° | 32° | 27° | 28° | 25–32° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 26° | 26° | 29° | 30° | 30° | 25° | 27° | 25–30° |
| 0d · 2026-09-06 | 26° | 28° | 30° | 31° | 34° | 27° | 29° | 26–34° |
| actual | 27° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.