Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Sep 6?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
14 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 76° to 83°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 81° against the MSP observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 66° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 66–86° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 83° | 82° | 81° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 79° | 76° | 75° | — | 78° | — | — | 75–79° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 70° | 64° | 73° | — | 88° | — | — | 64–88° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 67° | 78° | 89° | — | 88° | — | — | 67–89° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 80° | 70° | 89° | — | 90° | — | — | 70–90° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 81° | 86° | 78° | 93° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 83° | 78° | 95° | 94° | 84° | — | — | 78–95° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 79° | 80° | 86° | 88° | 92° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 81° | 84° | 80° | 88° | 79° | 90° | 81° | 79–90° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 77° | 86° | 84° | 78° | 89° | 84° | 87° | 77–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 75° | 85° | 87° | 82° | 81° | 86° | 93° | 75–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 78° | 80° | 87° | 81° | 81° | 76° | 78° | 76–87° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 76° | 78° | 76° | 80° | 90° | 80° | 82° | 76–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 81° | 83° | 81° | 86° | 88° | 80° | 80° | 80–88° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.