Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sun Sep 6?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 72° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 81° against the MSP observations — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 11° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 75° | 68° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 68–84° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 77° | 72° | 80° | — | 94° | — | — | 72–94° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 75° | 71° | 72° | — | 74° | — | — | 71–75° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 70° | 70° | 71° | — | 74° | — | — | 70–74° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 74° | 72° | 83° | — | 93° | — | — | 72–93° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 84° | 89° | 84° | — | 86° | — | — | 84–89° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 82° | 79° | 88° | 89° | 99° | — | — | 79–99° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 85° | 81° | 86° | 93° | 86° | — | — | 81–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 80° | 82° | 85° | 90° | 90° | 82° | — | 80–90° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 78° | 80° | 88° | 81° | 87° | 90° | 87° | 78–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 77° | 83° | 84° | 82° | 87° | 83° | 93° | 77–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 76° | 81° | 87° | 85° | 80° | 81° | 89° | 76–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 76° | 78° | 76° | 80° | 90° | 80° | 82° | 76–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 78° | 78° | 83° | 86° | 87° | 76° | 80° | 76–87° |
| 0d · 2026-09-06 | 78° | 82° | 85° | 88° | 92° | 81° | 84° | 78–92° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.