The Spread

Was the forecast right for Houston on Thu Sep 10?

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations

13 days out, 4 models put Houston's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 33° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 33° against the HOU observations — thunderstorms.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 3° cold.

13 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-26 — 34° — — 39° — — 34–39°
14d · 2026-08-27 36° 37° — — 35° — — 35–37°
13d · 2026-08-28 34° 33° 33° — 37° — — 33–37°
12d · 2026-08-29 34° 40° 33° — 36° — — 33–40°
11d · 2026-08-30 32° 34° 32° — 37° — — 32–37°
10d · 2026-08-31 32° 35° 31° — 38° — — 31–38°
9d · 2026-09-01 31° 34° 28° — 37° — — 28–37°
8d · 2026-09-02 33° 35° 30° 30° 37° — — 30–37°
7d · 2026-09-03 33° 35° 31° 34° 38° — — 31–38°
6d · 2026-09-04 32° 34° 30° 34° 37° 32° — 30–37°
5d · 2026-09-05 33° 34° 33° 33° 37° 34° 35° 33–37°
4d · 2026-09-06 32° 36° 33° 33° 35° 37° 35° 32–37°
3d · 2026-09-07 32° 34° 29° 33° 37° 34° 35° 29–37°
2d · 2026-09-08 32° 33° 30° 32° 33° 32° 36° 30–36°
1d · 2026-09-09 32° 33° 30° 31° 34° 32° 35° 30–35°
0d · 2026-09-10 32° 34° 30° 31° 33° 31° 34° 30–34°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.