Was the forecast right for Houston on Sat Aug 1?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
5 days out, 7 models put Houston's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 35° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 2.3 mm of precipitation — rain.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 36° | 35° | 38° | 37° | 41° | 38° | 38° | 35–41° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 36° | 38° | 39° | 37° | 40° | 37° | 39° | 36–40° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 35° | 37° | 37° | 35° | 40° | 34° | 36° | 34–40° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 36° | 36° | 37° | 37° | 39° | 35° | 36° | 35–39° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 35° | 36° | 36° | 37° | 35° | 35° | 38° | 35–38° |
| 0d · 2026-08-01 | 35° | 37° | 36° | 37° | 36° | 36° | 38° | 35–38° |
| actual | 36° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.