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Was the forecast right for Houston on Sat Aug 1?

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

6 days out, 7 models put Houston's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 34° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 2.3 mm of precipitation — rain.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 3° warm.

6 days out the models said 34–38; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 3°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
6d · 2026-07-26 35° 36° 34° 37° 37° 38° 38° 34–38°
5d · 2026-07-27 36° 36° 37° 37° 40° 38° 39° 36–40°
4d · 2026-07-28 36° 37° 38° 36° 39° 36° 38° 36–39°
3d · 2026-07-29 36° 36° 35° 36° 39° 35° 37° 35–39°
2d · 2026-07-30 36° 36° 37° 37° 38° 36° 38° 36–38°
1d · 2026-07-31 36° 36° 38° 37° 36° 35° 39° 35–39°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.