Where the weather models disagree in New York
New York, Central Park station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-18T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Fri Oct 30, where 4 of them put New York's high anywhere from 53° to 74° — ECMWF coldest, GFS hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 12-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 | 7 | 57° to 60° | 3° | 4° | ECMWF 57° | GFS 60° | 58° to 62° |
| Mon Oct 19 | 7 | 62° to 64° | 2° | 5° | AIFS 62° | GEM 64° | 59° to 65° |
| Tue Oct 20 | 7 | 63° to 68° | 5° | 5° | GEM 63° | ICON 68° | 62° to 66° |
| Wed Oct 21 | 7 | 58° to 63° | 5° | 7° | AIGFS 58° | GFS 63° | 56° to 62° |
| Thu Oct 22 | 7 | 60° to 67° | 7° | 8° | GEM 60° | GFS 67° | 62° to 66° |
| Fri Oct 23 | 7 | 53° to 58° | 5° | 9° | ECMWF 53° | UKMO 58° | 56° to 62° |
| Sat Oct 24 | 6 | 52° to 61° | 9° | 8° | ECMWF 52° | AIFS 61° | 50° to 58° |
| Sun Oct 25 | 5 | 60° to 65° | 5° | 10° | GEM 60° | AIFS 65° | 53° to 61° |
| Mon Oct 26 | 5 | 63° to 71° | 8° | 9° | GEM 63° | AIGFS 71° | 58° to 67° |
| Tue Oct 27 | 4 | 56° to 65° | 9° | 11° | AIFS 56° | AIGFS 65° | 56° to 67° |
| Wed Oct 28 | 4 | 53° to 59° | 6° | 11° | ECMWF 53° | AIGFS 59° | 51° to 67° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 4 | 56° to 63° | 7° | 12° | ECMWF 56° | GFS 63° | 51° to 67° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 4 | 53° to 74° | 21° | 11° | ECMWF 53° | GFS 74° | 51° to 68° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 4 | 53° to 73° | 20° | 11° | ECMWF 53° | GFS 73° | 54° to 68° |
Other locations
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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These location pages are public while the rest is gated.