Was the forecast right for New York on Sat Oct 17?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 10° to 22°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 16°. The day verified at 17° against the NYC observations, with 0.8 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.4°. ICON ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 15° | — | — | 14° | — | — | 14–15° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 22° | 13° | 10° | — | 16° | — | — | 10–22° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 18° | 18° | 20° | — | 20° | — | — | 18–20° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 21° | 15° | 22° | — | 24° | — | — | 15–24° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 14° | 18° | 21° | — | 19° | — | — | 14–21° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 15° | 19° | 15° | — | 27° | — | — | 15–27° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 16° | 21° | 21° | 16° | 27° | — | — | 16–27° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 14° | 17° | 14° | 19° | 19° | — | — | 14–19° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 13° | 18° | 11° | 19° | 20° | — | — | 11–20° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 11° | 12° | 11° | 11° | 13° | 11° | 12° | 11–13° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 13° | 14° | 11° | 12° | 16° | 15° | 11–16° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 18° | 15° | 15° | 13° | 17° | 18° | 14° | 13–18° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 17° | 16° | 19° | 18° | 16° | 20° | 16° | 16–20° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 16° | 14° | 18° | 17° | 16° | 19° | 18° | 14–19° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 16° | 15° | 18° | 16° | 16° | 18° | 17° | 15–18° |
| actual | 17° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.