Was the forecast right for New York on Fri Sep 4?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 21° to 29°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 30°. The day verified at 29° against the NYC observations, with 2.8 mm of precipitation — showers.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-20 | — | 24° | — | — | 32° | — | — | 24–32° |
| 14d · 2026-08-21 | 25° | 21° | 29° | — | 28° | — | — | 21–29° |
| 13d · 2026-08-22 | 26° | 26° | 26° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–26° |
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 27° | 24° | 27° | — | 25° | — | — | 24–27° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 26° | 21° | 30° | — | 23° | — | — | 21–30° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 24° | 26° | 30° | — | 33° | — | — | 24–33° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 28° | 23° | 28° | 20° | 24° | — | — | 20–28° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 26° | 28° | 24° | 26° | 22° | — | — | 22–28° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 28° | 27° | 26° | 25° | 30° | — | — | 25–30° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 28° | 28° | 23° | 25° | 31° | 29° | 29° | 23–31° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 28° | 27° | 28° | 25° | 30° | 31° | 29° | 25–31° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 29° | 28° | 28° | 27° | 33° | 29° | 28° | 27–33° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 28° | 29° | 28° | 27° | 32° | 28° | 30° | 27–32° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 29° | 30° | 28° | 28° | 31° | 29° | 30° | 28–31° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 28° | 30° | 28° | 31° | 32° | 27° | 30° | 27–32° |
| actual | 29° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.