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Which weather model is most accurate in New York?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for New York at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the NYC observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to GEM (Canada), which has run warm by about 2.68°F at 1-day lead over this window.

New York's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
ECMWF IFS 1.6° (+0.6°) 1.6° (+0.6°) 4.6° (-1.3°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.6° (-0.0°) 3.2° (-0.8°) 4.3° (-0.6°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.7° (+0.5°) 1.6° (+0.2°) 4.2° (-0.4°) 29
DWD ICON 1.7° (+0.6°) 2.2° (+0.7°) — 29
UKMO (UK) 1.7° (+1.5°) 2.3° (+1.0°) — 29
NOAA GFS 2.7° (+2.2°) 3.6° (+2.5°) 5.4° (+0.1°) 29
GEM (Canada) 2.9° (+2.7°) 2.1° (-0.2°) 5.1° (+1.4°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's New York point is the Central Park station (NYC), 5.2 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Central Park (NYC) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 61–69; it hit 72. GFS led (off 1.3°F); ECMWF ran 6°F warm.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 55–77; it hit 64. ICON led (off 0.7°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 59–71; it hit 77. ICON led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 57–76; it hit 71. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 60–67; it hit 70. AIFS led (off 0.5°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 54–60; it hit 60. ICON led (off 0.3°F); ECMWF ran 3°F warm.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 57–70; it hit 69. GFS led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 2°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 62–67; it hit 70. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 56–68; it hit 73. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 66–70; it hit 65. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 63–69; it hit 60. ECMWF led (off 1.3°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 62–74; it hit 68. ECMWF led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 2°F warm.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 64–79; it hit 62. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 56–73; it hit 70. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 67–77; it hit 83. UKMO led (off 0.8°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 68–72; it hit 76. AIFS led (off 0.7°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 61–82; it hit 74. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 70–86; it hit 70. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); ICON ran 2°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 68–76; it hit 62. ECMWF led (off 0.7°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 70–76; it hit 63. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); ICON ran 4°F warm.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 67–74; it hit 61. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 70–78; it hit 69. ICON led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 62–76; it hit 66. ICON led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 63–79; it hit 67. ICON led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 2°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 62–71; it hit 68. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 67–78; it hit 72. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 61–76; it hit 69. GFS led (off 0.4°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 69–76; it hit 69. AIFS led (off 1.0°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 69–80; it hit 80. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 17 13 days out the models said 68–90; it hit 82. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); ICON ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 72–86; it hit 77. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 60–92; it hit 72. ICON led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 79–84; it hit 75. AIGFS led (off 0.2°F); UKMO ran 4°F warm.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 70–86; it hit 79. AIGFS led (off 0.6°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 65–85; it hit 78. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 2°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 73–90; it hit 79. AIFS led (off 1.0°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 75–94; it hit 84. ICON led (off 1.3°F); GFS ran 8°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 79–90; it hit 82. ICON led (off 1.3°F); GFS ran 7°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 78–86; it hit 80. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 76–84; it hit 78. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 73–81; it hit 76. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 4°F warm.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 71–77; it hit 79. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 70–84; it hit 84. AIFS led (off 0.8°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 3 14 days out the models said 72–80; it hit 84. ECMWF led (off 2.4°F); GFS ran 6°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 13 days out the models said 74–82; it hit 71. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 8°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 1 12 days out the models said 70–94; it hit 82. UKMO led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 7°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 11 days out the models said 72–89; it hit 78. UKMO led (off 0.7°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 10 days out the models said 75–84; it hit 79. AIFS led (off 1.2°F); GEM ran 9°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 9 days out the models said 75–84; it hit 76. AIFS led (off 0.7°F); GFS ran 8°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 28 8 days out the models said 80–85; it hit 84. AIGFS led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Thu Aug 27 7 days out the models said 73–83; it hit 77. AIFS led (off 1.4°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 6 days out the models said 79–86; it hit 81. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 25 5 days out the models said 78–85; it hit 78. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 6°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 24 4 days out the models said 75–84; it hit 79. AIFS led (off 0.4°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 75–83; it hit 84. ICON led (off 0.3°F); UKMO ran 4°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 76–87; it hit 80. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); GFS ran 7°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 77–85; it hit 79. ICON led (off 1.1°F); ECMWF ran 4°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 70–85; it hit 82. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 79–81; it hit 85. AIFS led (off 0.3°F); ICON ran 3°F warm.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 71–81; it hit 85. AIFS led (off 0.4°F); UKMO ran 4°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 75–84; it hit 89. GFS led (off 1.0°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 84–90; it hit 88. ICON led (off 0.2°F).
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 85–91; it hit 91. ICON led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 79–88; it hit 92. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 2°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 78–92; it hit 88. GEM led (off 0.7°F); UKMO ran 4°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 78–89; it hit 95. GFS led (off 2.0°F); ECMWF ran 10°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 81–86; it hit 91. GFS led (off 1.1°F); AIGFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 83. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 71–88; it hit 84. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); GFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 72–90; it hit 83. ICON led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 76–84; it hit 82. GFS led (off 0.1°F); ICON ran 2°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 80–87; it hit 85. AIFS led (off 0.2°F); ICON ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 77–88; it hit 84. GEM led (off 0.2°F).
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 72–82; it hit 77. ECMWF led (off 0.4°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.

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