Was the forecast right for New York on Sat Oct 17?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Sat Oct 17 high anywhere from 51° to 72°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 61°. The day verified at 62° against the NYC observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.8°. ICON ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Oct 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-02 | — | 58° | — | — | 57° | — | — | 57–58° |
| 14d · 2026-10-03 | 72° | 56° | 51° | — | 60° | — | — | 51–72° |
| 13d · 2026-10-04 | 64° | 64° | 68° | — | 67° | — | — | 64–68° |
| 12d · 2026-10-05 | 69° | 59° | 72° | — | 75° | — | — | 59–75° |
| 11d · 2026-10-06 | 58° | 64° | 70° | — | 67° | — | — | 58–70° |
| 10d · 2026-10-07 | 60° | 66° | 60° | — | 81° | — | — | 60–81° |
| 9d · 2026-10-08 | 62° | 70° | 70° | 60° | 81° | — | — | 60–81° |
| 8d · 2026-10-09 | 57° | 63° | 57° | 66° | 66° | — | — | 57–66° |
| 7d · 2026-10-10 | 56° | 65° | 51° | 67° | 67° | — | — | 51–67° |
| 6d · 2026-10-11 | 52° | 54° | 52° | 52° | 56° | 52° | 54° | 52–56° |
| 5d · 2026-10-12 | — | 55° | 58° | 51° | 54° | 60° | 58° | 51–60° |
| 4d · 2026-10-13 | 64° | 58° | 58° | 56° | 63° | 64° | 57° | 56–64° |
| 3d · 2026-10-14 | 63° | 61° | 66° | 64° | 61° | 68° | 61° | 61–68° |
| 2d · 2026-10-15 | 62° | 58° | 64° | 63° | 60° | 66° | 64° | 58–66° |
| 1d · 2026-10-16 | 61° | 60° | 64° | 61° | 60° | 65° | 63° | 60–65° |
| actual | 62° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.