Was the forecast right for New York on Tue Sep 22?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 62° to 71°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 65°. The day verified at 68° against the NYC observations — rain.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIGFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 77° | — | — | 75° | — | — | 75–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 69° | 62° | 71° | — | 71° | — | — | 62–71° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 81° | 67° | 65° | — | 77° | — | — | 65–81° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 64° | 63° | 60° | — | 67° | — | — | 60–67° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 66° | 68° | 74° | — | 69° | — | — | 66–74° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 72° | 64° | 70° | — | 67° | — | — | 64–72° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 68° | 67° | 83° | 75° | 66° | — | — | 66–83° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 61° | 64° | 64° | 66° | 63° | — | — | 61–66° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 64° | 64° | 67° | 65° | 67° | — | — | 64–67° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 61° | 64° | 64° | 65° | 68° | 66° | 71° | 61–71° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 62° | 60° | 62° | 64° | 60° | 68° | 67° | 60–68° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 61° | 58° | 63° | 57° | 63° | 66° | 68° | 57–68° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 65° | 58° | 64° | 64° | 65° | 67° | 69° | 58–69° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 63° | 59° | 64° | 66° | 66° | 66° | 69° | 59–69° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 63° | 61° | 64° | 66° | 66° | 65° | 68° | 61–68° |
| actual | 68° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.