Was the forecast right for New York on Thu Sep 3?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
13 days out, 4 models put New York's Thu Sep 3 high anywhere from 75° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 84° against the NYC observations, with 0.12 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-21 | 75° | 78° | 81° | — | 87° | — | — | 75–87° |
| 12d · 2026-08-22 | 80° | 72° | 82° | — | 86° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 11d · 2026-08-23 | 84° | 71° | 79° | — | 73° | — | — | 71–84° |
| 10d · 2026-08-24 | 80° | 73° | 84° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 9d · 2026-08-25 | 82° | 82° | 86° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-26 | 83° | 84° | 91° | 80° | 95° | — | — | 80–95° |
| 7d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 82° | 76° | 82° | 94° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-28 | 79° | 86° | 86° | 75° | 98° | 84° | — | 75–98° |
| 5d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 87° | 91° | 77° | 75° | 88° | 88° | 75–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-30 | 83° | 88° | 83° | 78° | 88° | 88° | 76° | 76–88° |
| 3d · 2026-08-31 | 82° | 87° | 88° | 76° | 88° | 88° | 90° | 76–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-01 | 81° | 87° | 87° | 79° | 92° | 86° | 90° | 79–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-02 | 82° | 87° | 86° | 86° | 89° | 84° | 86° | 82–89° |
| 0d · 2026-09-03 | 82° | 86° | 84° | 87° | 90° | 87° | 88° | 82–90° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.