Was the forecast right for New York on Thu Sep 10?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 75° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 84° against the NYC observations, with 0.06 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.3°. GFS ran 8° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 80° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 80–83° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 88° | 75° | 94° | — | 80° | — | — | 75–94° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 82° | 86° | 98° | — | 86° | — | — | 82–98° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 78° | 85° | 83° | — | 81° | — | — | 78–85° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 85° | 75° | 72° | — | 81° | — | — | 72–85° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 88° | 87° | 76° | — | 90° | — | — | 76–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 85° | 85° | 89° | 87° | 81° | — | — | 81–89° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 87° | 90° | 82° | 85° | 85° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 80° | 92° | 84° | 90° | 88° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 87° | 88° | 91° | 89° | 81° | 91° | 88° | 81–91° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 84° | 87° | 87° | 87° | 79° | 86° | 85° | 79–87° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 83° | 82° | 92° | 86° | 77° | 85° | 86° | 77–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 84° | 84° | 80° | 87° | 90° | 81° | 80° | 80–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 87° | 88° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 86° | 85–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 88° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 92° | 83° | 88° | 83–92° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.